US economic fears and Bitcoin: Saylor’s US$16T reserve plan- Anndy Lian

As I reflect on the complex interplay of global financial dynamics, US economic indicators, and the bold proposal for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve championed by Michael Saylor, I find myself intrigued and cautious about the implications for investors, markets, and the broader economy.

The recent pullback in global risk sentiment, driven by concerns over the US economy’s health, paints a picture of uncertainty that resonates deeply with the volatile movements in Bitcoin and other asset classes. Treasury yields have been falling across all maturities since mid-January as investors flock to the safety of fixed-income assets, signalling a shift toward risk aversion, with havens like the yen and Swiss franc gaining ground.

At the same time, the US dollar experiences its longest losing streak. This backdrop of faltering confidence in US economic outperformance and mixed signals from employment data — non-farm payrolls rising by 151,000 in February but the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1 per cent — creates a fragile foundation for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The data from China further complicates the global economic outlook. Consumer inflation falling below zero for the first time in 13 months, amid persistent deflationary pressures, underscores weakening demand and raises concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy. This, in turn, has a ripple effect on commodities like Brent crude, which hovers around US$70 per barrel despite a modest 1.3 per cent uptick, as weak Chinese economic data dampens oil demand expectations.

Meanwhile, US equity markets show resilience, with the MSCI US index edging up 0.5 per cent and Utilities outperforming at 1.9 per cent. Still, the slight rise in US Treasury yields — 10-year at 4.30 per cent and 2-year at 4.00 per cent — and a continued decline in the U.S. Dollar Index by 0.2 per cent suggest lingering growth worries.

Gold, maintaining upward momentum toward US$3,000 per ounce despite a minor 0.1 per cent dip, reflects its role as a safe-haven asset amid this uncertainty. The mixed performance of Asian equities and the implied 0.4 per cent lower opening for US stock index futures further highlight the cautious mood permeating global markets.

Against this backdrop, Michael Saylor’s proposal for the US government to acquire 25 per cent of Bitcoin’s total supply — approximately 5.3 million BTC — by 2035 to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve feels both visionary and audacious. Presented at the White House Crypto Summit, where President Donald Trump endorsed a “never sell your Bitcoin” policy and issued an executive order prohibiting the sale of Bitcoin held in reserve, Saylor’s plan suggests a systematic acquisition of 5–25 per cent of Bitcoin’s daily supply between 2025 and 2035.

By that time, with 99 per cent of Bitcoin’s 21 million total supply already issued, the US would hold a significant portion of the cryptocurrency, potentially generating US$16 trillion to US$81 trillion by 2045, according to Saylor’s projections. He argues this could help reduce the national debt, which, as noted in recent World Bank reports, has ballooned globally due to crisis responses like those during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about sustainability, especially in emerging economies.

From my perspective, Saylor’s proposal is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it could catalyse broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin, as governments and corporations might follow the US lead, legitimising cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance. The executive order’s prohibition on selling Bitcoin could stabilise its long-term value by reducing supply pressure, potentially driving prices higher as demand grows.

This aligns with Saylor’s vision of Bitcoin as a “property in cyberspace,” akin to strategic reserves of gold, oil, or grain, as historical examples cited by Saylor — like the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve established in 1975 — demonstrate.

The idea of the US asserting geopolitical influence through digital asset holdings, as suggested in reports from CoinDesk and Reuters, could position the country as a leader in setting global crypto standards, fostering innovation, and countering the dominance of other nations or entities in the digital economy.

However, the practicality and risks of this plan are significant. Bitcoin’s price volatility, evidenced by its recent 5 per cent drop to around US$80,000 following Trump’s executive order, underscores the challenges of integrating it into a national strategic reserve. As noted in the Bitcoin price decline, the disappointment among investors suggests skepticism about the reserve’s immediate impact, especially amid broader market uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s history of sharp corrections — like the 30 per cent drop from January 2025 levels, as mentioned in X posts from analysts like @JacobKinge — highlights its immaturity as a stable store of value compared to traditional assets. The crypto market’s “Extreme Fear” sentiment, reflected in the Fear & Greed Index dropping to levels seen during the 2020 COVID-19 crash and the 2022 market bottom, as reported by @inmortalcrypto and @APompliano, indicates that investor confidence is fragile, potentially exacerbated by large government purchases that could distort market dynamics.

Moreover, the logistics of acquiring such a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s supply — up to 25 per cent — over a decade are daunting. With a current market cap of over US$1.6 trillion (based on a US$80,000 price per BTC), purchasing 5.3 million BTC could cost upwards of US$424 billion, though Saylor’s gradual approach might mitigate price inflation.

However, as noted in Reuters’ coverage, large-scale government purchases could outsize Bitcoin’s price, especially given its relatively low trading volume compared to traditional markets. The inclusion of other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, as Trump hinted, adds further complexity, as smaller tokens like Cardano and XRP have even lower liquidity, potentially amplifying volatility. Cybersecurity risks, as mentioned in web analyses, also loom large, given Bitcoin wallets’ vulnerability to hacks, raising questions about the feasibility of securing such a reserve.

The broader economic context complicates matters further. The US government’s fiscal position, with rising national debt concerns outlined in the World Development Report 2022 and U.S. News articles on potential 2025 stock market risks, suggests that allocating billions to Bitcoin could be contentious.

Critics might argue that funds could be better directed toward infrastructure and social programs or to stabilise traditional markets amid faltering growth and persistent inflation, which remains above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 per cent, at 3 per cent, according to US News. The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates significantly, as noted in US Bank’s analysis of the yield curve, and the potential for recession signals — like an inverted yield curve, though currently fading — could heighten opposition to such a speculative investment.

On the positive side, Saylor’s comparison to historical US strategic purchases — like the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska acquisition, which yielded massive long-term returns — offers a compelling narrative. If Bitcoin follows a trajectory similar to its 2017 cycle, as suggested by @rovercrc on X, it could see exponential growth, justifying the reserve’s creation.

The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, reinforced by the White House Crypto Summit and Saylor’s participation, could also attract institutional investors, boosting market confidence and regulatory clarity, as seen in the proposed Lummis bill for a Bitcoin reserve. This could align with broader trends of digital asset integration, as evidenced by El Salvador’s past Bitcoin adoption. However, its recent project cessation highlights the risks of over-reliance on crypto.

Ultimately, I see Saylor’s proposal as a high-stakes gamble with transformative potential but significant risks. The current market environment — marked by US economic uncertainty, global deflationary pressures, and Bitcoin’s volatility — suggests caution is warranted.

While the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could position the US as a crypto leader and generate enormous returns, it could also strain public finances, destabilise markets, and expose the government to unprecedented risks. I’d advocate for thorough public debate, rigorous economic modelling, and pilot programs to test the feasibility before committing to such an ambitious plan. The recent Bitcoin price drop to US$80,000, coupled with investor disappointment, serves as a stark reminder that crypto’s promise is tempered by its unpredictability, making Saylor’s vision both inspiring and, at this moment, daunting.

Source: https://e27.co/us-economic-fears-and-bitcoin-saylors-us16t-reserve-plan-20250310/